"Will in New Haven"
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bill.reich@taylorandfrancis.com
Sep 8, 2006, 8:37 PM
Post #138 of 181(1572 views)
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Gary Carson wrote:
> On Sep 8 2006 3:04 PM, Will in New Haven wrote:
>
> >
> > When I was paying attention to the statistics, the areas in the U.S.
> > with the per-capita highest violent crime rates were all rural. People
> > in Walker County, Alabama (taking a bow) wouldn't break into your place
> > or mug a stranger but someone was killing her husband or breaking a
> > chair over his brother-in-law's head or setting fire to the guy across
> > the street who rooted for UTennessee pretty often. It was annoying that
> > Harlan County, Kentucky was ahead of us but they had that whole mining
> > war going on.
>
> In the early 90's I did some research that resulted in a paper presented to the
> American Criminology Association that found murders correlated with the square
> of population density. The focus of that research was on unemployment,
> unemployment insurance, and crime, but I do recall the population density
> variable because I remember looking at the residuals from a linear model and
> seeing the quadratic relationship.
>
> My recollection is that that was consistent with other research findings. So, I
> don't understand your assertion.
>
> Just as an aside, the point of the findings was that unemployment
> increases which is mediated by unemployment insurance isn't correlated with
> crime increases. But unemployment without unemployment insurance is.
>
> Gary Carson
> http://www.garycarson.com
I was referring to raw data from the early Sixties which had several
rural counties ahead of places like NYC and Detroit in the number of
murders. There may well have been tons of other places where there was
low population density and very few murders and the average may have
more than evened out but Walker County, Alabama and Harlan County, KY
and some hellhole in West Virginia topped the list that year. Harlan
was first but we resented their prominance.
Although Walker County was poor and full of unemployment, most of the
violent crime was not clearly related to either of those factors. It
was usually poor people involved but most people were poor. It was
mostly, slap your wife and her brothers kill you. Then your dad and his
brother kill a couple of them. Or see a Black person where you don't
think he belongs and bust a cap on him. Or some drunk yells something
incomprehensible at another and the other guy shoots him and has no
idea what the insult that caused the shooting was.
Will in New Haven
--
Near this spot are deposited the remains of one who possessed Beauty
without Vanity, Strength without Insolence, Courage without Ferocity,
and all the Virtues of Man, without his Vices. This Praise, which
would be unmeaning Flattery if inscribed over human ashes, is but a
just tribute to the Memory of Boatswain, a Dog. ~George Gordon, Lord
Byron, "Inscription on the Monument of a Newfoundland Dog"
>
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